Bharti Airtel’s India ARPU focus and Africa growth underpin Q4FY26 momentum
Bharti Airtel Ltd.
Buy
₹1,884
₹1,741
₹2,216
17.62%
Investment View and Valuation
Prabhudas Lilladher’s May 14, 2026 Q4FY26 result update on Bharti Airtel retains its Buy rating and revises the target price to Rs2,226 from Rs2,266. The broker views Q4FY26 performance as resilient, supported by execution across the India and Africa businesses.
The core thesis centres on India mobile monetisation through premiumisation, postpaid upgrades, bundled offers, international roaming and rural expansion, alongside Airtel Africa as a long-term growth driver.
The Rs2,226 target price is based on a 12.1 times FY28E EV/EBITDA valuation for the India business, plus discounted values for Airtel Africa, Indus Towers and Bharti Hexacom.
Q4FY26 Consolidated Performance
Bharti Airtel reported consolidated Q4FY26 revenue of Rs553.8 billion, up 15.7 per cent year-on-year and 2.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter, broadly in line with Prabhudas Lilladher’s estimate. EBITDA was Rs314.9 billion, up 16.6 per cent year-on-year and 2.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter, and 0.3 per cent below the broker’s estimate. EBITDA margin was 56.9 per cent, compared with 56.4 per cent a year earlier.
Adjusted profit after tax was Rs104.9 billion, down 6.1 per cent year-on-year and 5.6 per cent below the broker estimate. For FY26, consolidated revenue rose 22.0 per cent to Rs2,109.7 billion, while EBITDA increased 28.5 per cent to Rs1,196.7 billion.
| Consolidated metric | Q4FY26 | Year-on-year change | Quarter-on-quarter change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rs553.8 billion | +15.7% | +2.6% |
| EBITDA | Rs314.9 billion | +16.6% | +2.3% |
| EBITDA margin | 56.9% | 56.4% in Q4FY25 | — |
| Adjusted profit after tax | Rs104.9 billion | -6.1% | — |
India Mobile: Monetisation and Subscriber Growth
India mobile revenue increased 8.3 per cent year-on-year to Rs288.3 billion in Q4FY26, while EBITDA increased 11.0 per cent to Rs174.8 billion. Mobile ARPU was Rs257 per month, up 5.0 per cent year-on-year but marginally lower than Rs259 in Q3FY26.
Bharti Airtel added 4.7 million mobile subscribers, including 0.8 million postpaid users. This took the postpaid base to 29.0 million and total India mobile subscribers to 373 million.
Prabhudas Lilladher estimates India mobile subscribers of 384 million and 392 million, and ARPU of Rs267 and Rs276, in FY27E and FY28E respectively.
| India mobile metric | Q4FY26 | Change / estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rs288.3 billion | +8.3% year-on-year |
| EBITDA | Rs174.8 billion | +11.0% year-on-year |
| Mobile ARPU | Rs257 per month | +5.0% year-on-year; Rs259 in Q3FY26 |
| Mobile subscribers | 373 million | 4.7 million additions in Q4FY26 |
| FY27E subscribers / ARPU | 384 million / Rs267 | Broker estimate |
| FY28E subscribers / ARPU | 392 million / Rs276 | Broker estimate |
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India Businesses Beyond Mobile
Home and Enterprise
India Home maintained strong momentum. Q4FY26 revenue rose 37.3 per cent year-on-year to Rs21.9 billion and EBITDA increased 38.2 per cent to Rs11.0 billion. Customer additions of 1.1 million took the customer base to 14.2 million, although home ARPU declined 3.0 per cent year-on-year to Rs535 per month.
Enterprise revenue improved 3.3 per cent year-on-year and 2.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to Rs54.9 billion, while EBITDA rose 5.4 per cent year-on-year to Rs23.6 billion. Management cited a healthy order book and pipeline, with FY26 order-book growth of 17 per cent, supported by wins in Internet of Things, security, cloud, connectivity and Nxtra offerings.
Digital TV
Digital TV remained a weak area. Revenue declined 2.3 per cent and EBITDA fell 14.3 per cent year-on-year. Subscriber additions, however, improved to 570,000 and IPTV adoption strengthened.
Airtel Africa Growth Outlook
Airtel Africa revenue rose 40.9 per cent year-on-year to Rs160.3 billion and EBITDA increased 55.1 per cent to Rs78.9 billion. Constant-currency revenue growth was 22 per cent, and Africa represented 29 per cent of revenue.
Management increased Bharti Airtel’s Airtel Africa stake by 16.3 per cent. It highlighted the region’s low unique-SIM teledensity, low smartphone penetration and young demographics as long-term opportunity indicators.
New Growth Areas and Capital Expenditure
Management identified data centres, financial services and cloud as new growth areas. It plans to scale data-centre capacity towards 1 gigawatt over the next few years and build 56 edge data centres over 18 to 24 months.
Airtel Money has an RBI-approved NBFC licence, with monthly disbursements at a Rs5.5 billion run rate. Airtel Payments Bank had 120 million monthly active users, annualised revenue of Rs34 billion and deposits of Rs46 billion at the end of Q4FY26.
FY27 capital expenditure is expected to be broadly in line with FY26.
Broker Estimate Revisions
Prabhudas Lilladher raised its FY27E and FY28E sales estimates by 1.1 per cent and 0.9 per cent, respectively. EBITDA estimates were increased by 3.8 per cent and 3.5 per cent, while EPS estimates were raised by 2.8 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively.
| Estimate revision | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | +1.1% | +0.9% |
| EBITDA | +3.8% | +3.5% |
| EPS | +2.8% | +2.1% |
Key Watch Points
- Sequentially flat India mobile ARPU.
- Declining home and Digital TV ARPU.
- Continuing weakness in the Digital TV business.
Disclaimer: This is a summary of a research report published by the broker/research house identified above. The views, recommendations, target prices and estimates are those of the respective broker and do not represent DSIJ investment advice. The summary may be AI-assisted, hence please refer to the original report for complete details, disclosures and risks.
