Eternal Blinkit growth and food delivery cash generation support higher target

Investment View and Target Price

ICICI Securities’ October 7, 2026 company update on Eternal remains constructive because it expects both food delivery and quick commerce to become cash-generative engines, while the going-out business offers additional scope for value discovery. The broker maintains a BUY rating and raises its target price to Rs 425 from Rs 360 by rolling its valuation forward by six months.

Quick Commerce: Blinkit

For Blinkit, Eternal’s quick-commerce business, ICICI Securities estimates net order value, or NOV, growth of 76 per cent year-on-year in Q2 FY27E. It forecasts adjusted EBITDA of Rs 1,500 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 0.8 per cent of NOV, up 15 basis points quarter-on-quarter.

The broker views Blinkit as the market leader and the only major quick-commerce player that has achieved EBITDA-level profitability. It believes Blinkit has sustained profitability despite rising competition, which supports the strength of its market positioning.

The broker forecasts Blinkit NOV to grow at a 48.3 per cent CAGR over FY26 to FY29E, driven by:

• Dark-store additions;
• Broader geographic coverage; and
• Assortment expansion.

It expects EBITDA margin to reach 3.1 per cent by FY29E as operating leverage, store productivity and store economics improve. ICICI Securities also believes Blinkit’s convenience proposition could strengthen further as its dark-store count approaches about 3,000.

Food Delivery

In food delivery, ICICI Securities estimates Q2 FY27 NOV growth of 21 per cent year-on-year, adjusted EBITDA of Rs 6,400 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.6 per cent of NOV.

The broker continues to regard food delivery as a duopoly with limited near-term risk to the market structure. It forecasts roughly 20 per cent NOV growth over FY26 to FY29E, supported by healthy order growth and gradual average order value expansion.

The broker estimates food delivery adjusted EBITDA of Rs 3,800 million by FY29E, equivalent to about 5.7 per cent of NOV, which it sees as an important contributor to cash generation and overall free cash flow.

Going-Out Business and Hyperpure

For the going-out business, ICICI Securities estimates NOV and revenue CAGR of 38.1 per cent over FY26 to FY29E. It expects EBITDA break-even in FY28 and an EBITDA margin of about 2.5 per cent by FY29E.

Management has guided for US$3 billion of NOV and US$150 million of adjusted EBITDA in this business. The report does not provide separate operating commentary on Hyperpure, although the business is included in the valuation.

Valuation and Sum-of-the-Parts

ICICI Securities uses a three-stage DCF-based valuation framework and presents an implied sum-of-the-parts value of Rs 425 per share.

Financial Estimates

The broker’s financial estimates show net revenue rising from Rs 5,43,640 million in FY26A to Rs 10,34,251 million in FY27E and Rs 14,62,277 million in FY28E. It forecasts EBITDA of Rs 40,048 million in FY27E and Rs 74,526 million in FY28E, with EBITDA margins of 3.9 per cent and 5.1 per cent respectively. Estimated net profit is Rs 24,903 million for FY27E and Rs 51,804 million for FY28E, compared with Rs 3,660 million in FY26A.

Key Risks

• A slowdown in discretionary spending; and
• Negative externalities that disrupt business operations.