Suzlon Energy order book supports delivery-led EBITDA growth as wind installations accelerate

Investment View and Valuation

Motilal Oswal Financial Services, in its October 11, 2026 update on Suzlon Energy, reiterated its Buy rating with a target price of Rs 65. The broker considers the valuation attractive after the stock corrected 31 per cent over the preceding three months.

At Rs 38, Suzlon Energy traded at 17.5 times FY28E EPS, which was 20 per cent below the broker's one-year forward mean minus one standard deviation valuation of 22 times.

Order Book and Earnings Visibility

The central investment thesis is improving earnings visibility from Suzlon Energy's 5.9GW order book as of the end of Q1 FY27. The order book included about 1.3GW of inflows in FY27 year to date and, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services, provides 100 per cent visibility for its estimated deliveries through Q3 FY28.

The broker forecasts a 35 per cent year-on-year increase in FY27 deliveries to 3.3GW, comprising an estimated 1.2GW in the first half and 2.1GW in the second half. Deliveries are expected to rise to 3.8GW in FY28E. Since the second half typically accounts for 60-65 per cent of annual EBITDA, the broker expects earnings momentum to strengthen materially in H2 FY27 as deliveries ramp up.

Financial Forecasts

The forecasts imply a 22 per cent EBITDA CAGR over FY26-28E and indicate a net cash position, reflected in negative net debt to EBITDA of 0.3 times in FY27E and 0.6 times in FY28E.

Industry Outlook

The broker sees a supportive industry backdrop. India added about 3GW of wind capacity in H1 FY27. Based on the historical pattern in which second-half installations are about 1.5 times first-half installations, Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects FY27 additions of about 7.5GW, consistent with the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy expectation of 7.5-8GW.

Rising evening power demand is expected to support wind-solar hybrid and firm and dispatchable renewable energy projects. The report highlights that average May evening peak prices increased from Rs 8.08 per kWh in 2023 to Rs 9.40 in 2025 and Rs 9.71 in 2026, improving the economics of wind generation.

Additional Growth Opportunities

DevCo, Repowering and Exports

• More than 600MW of DevCo orders were booked within the first four months of FY27, representing 60 per cent of total orders.
• Management expects confirmed repowering orders by the end of FY27. India's potential repowering opportunity is estimated at up to 25GW.
• Suzlon Energy is evaluating export opportunities in Europe, Australia, Latin America and Southeast Asia, with Australia and Europe identified as promising markets.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services also cites regulatory support from local-content requirements under ALMM for wind, proactive land acquisition and EPC expansion as factors that could improve execution.

Target Price Methodology and Key Dependencies

The Rs 65 target price is based on 30 times FY28E EPS of Rs 2.2, a slight premium to Suzlon Energy's historical average two-year forward P/E of 27 times.

The broker's positive view depends on delivery execution, conversion of the order book and continued momentum in Indian wind-capacity additions. The report does not provide a separate explicit risk section.