Titan Company targets 20 per cent growth as jewellery share and Caratlane scale

Investment View and Key Takeaways

In its June 8, 2026 company update, ICICI Securities retains a BUY recommendation on Titan Company Ltd and continues to view Titan as one of its top discretionary picks. The broker believes the company’s ambitious FY26-FY30 growth aspirations could provide upside risk to its FY27E and FY28E earnings estimates, although it will assess near-term performance before making material estimate revisions.

Rising gold prices, higher inflation and government actions to curb gold consumption could affect performance in H1 FY27. ICICI Securities nevertheless believes Titan’s increasing domestic jewellery market share and strong balance sheet should help it navigate these conditions.

The broker values Titan at 63 times FY28E EPS of Rs 79.7 to derive a target price of Rs 4,980. Its estimates exclude Damas.

FY26-FY30 Growth Aspirations

At its 2026 investor meet, Titan management outlined an aspiration for revenue to grow at a 20 per cent CAGR over FY26-FY30. Core businesses, comprising India Jewellery brands Tanishq, Mia and Zoya, Caratlane, Watches and Eyecare, are expected to grow at 19-23 per cent CAGR.

Smaller operations, including international jewellery, TEAL watch manufacturing and emerging categories such as Bags, Saree and Fragrances, are expected to grow at 26-32 per cent CAGR. Recently acquired Damas is expected to grow two times over FY26-FY30.

Titan has low to high single-digit market shares in most domestic businesses other than Watches. Management sees scope for expansion through product innovation, portfolio segmentation, and greater e-commerce and omni-channel availability.

India Jewellery: Principal Growth Engine

Management targets India Jewellery revenue and EBIT to grow 2.0 times and 1.9 times, respectively, by FY30. The business’s market share is targeted to increase to 11 per cent from 8.5 per cent in FY26.

India jewellery revenue grew at a 23 per cent CAGR in FY23-FY26, while buyer growth was 7 per cent. Titan plans to add 40 Tanishq and 60 Mia stores annually and renovate 60 Tanishq stores each year. Mia generated more than Rs 2,000 crore of revenue in FY26, while Zoya generated Rs 500 crore.

Titan is scaling studded jewellery and natural diamonds. It launched the BeYon lab-grown diamond brand in FY26, with an aspiration to build 100 stores. The gold exchange scheme represents 50 per cent of domestic jewellery sales and 40 per cent of gold supply, aiding competition with unorganised players during periods of high gold prices.

Margin Outlook and Business-Level Growth

Management expects domestic jewellery EBIT margins to decline by 60 basis points over FY26-FY30 because of gold-price volatility, a greater than 50 per cent bullion-sales mix and lower-karat jewellery sales. It expects this pressure to be offset by several factors:

• Caratlane margins improving from high single digits to low double digits.
• Sustained margin improvement in Watches and Eyecare.
• Damas turning EBITDA positive and reaching high single-digit EBIT margins by FY30.

Damas is currently loss-making. Titan therefore expects overall EBIT to grow two times, broadly in line with revenue growth.

Caratlane

Caratlane is positioned as a design-led, technology-enabled jewellery business. Digital influence on buying rose to 74 per cent in FY26 from 24 per cent in FY18, while online sales grew 23 per cent in FY26. Caratlane served 2.4 million customers, and management aspires to revenue and EBIT CAGRs of 23 per cent and 26 per cent, respectively, through FY30.

Watches and Eyecare

Watches targets revenue and EBIT CAGRs of 20 per cent and 22 per cent, respectively, supported by premiumisation. Eyecare returned to 14 per cent growth in FY26 and targets revenue and EBIT CAGRs of 22 per cent and 26 per cent, respectively.

Financial Performance and Estimates

Titan reported FY26 revenue of Rs 87,584 crore, EBITDA of Rs 8,355 crore and adjusted PAT of Rs 5,148 crore. ICICI Securities estimates continued growth in FY27E and FY28E:

Valuation and Key Risks

ICICI Securities derives its Rs 4,980 target price by applying a valuation multiple of 63 times to FY28E EPS of Rs 79.7. The broker’s assumptions exclude Damas.

Key risks identified in the report are:

• Sustained gold-price inflation.
• A slowdown in discretionary consumption.
• An increase in customs duty on gold.