Skymet Weather forecasts 95% monsoon in 2017

According to Skymet Weather forecast, monsoon in India this year is likely to remain below normal at 95 per cent (with an error margin of +/-5 per cent) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September. This is because of El Niño, whose effect will be felt July onward. Most of the weather models are indicating 60 per cent chance of El Niño coming into existence during the second half of the monsoon season. There is 25 per cent chance of below normal rains and 15 per cent chance of drought.

If the monsoon forecast came true, it will continue to put stress on the consumer demand environment (especially in the rural market), which is dependent on good monsoon for pick-up in revenue. Moreover, the below normal monsoon will have adverse impact on sectors like consumer goods, retail, textile, agri-inputs and rural focused auto companies.