IMD forecasts normal rainfall in 2017 monsoon

All eyes are set on the first monsoon forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). However, the IMD sees an increased probability of El Nino effect from August 2017 and believes that the rain distribution would be even throughout the country. The IMD will issue its monthly forecast in the month of June 2017. 

India is likely to witness good monsoon in 2017 approximately at the rate of 96% with modal error of plus or minus 5%. There is nearly 38% probability of mere normal rainfall in India in 2017.

The current year's forecast is majorly important for the agriculture sector with major reports pointing fingers toward the El Nino weather phenomenon, which is likely to happen during the later part of the year.

El Niño is a weather phenomenon caused by unusual warming in the Pacific Ocean, resulting in atmospheric changes, potentially leading to poor monsoon.

IMD, in the previous year, had forecast that rainfall in the period between June to September would be 106% of the 50-year average, which is above normal. In the second outlook also, it predicted above-normal monsoon, but the actual rainfall was around 97% of the 50-year average.

For the year 2015, the IMD’s forecast for monsoon was at 93% and the actual monsoon was pegged at 86%.