IIP For Nov 2012 Lower At -0.1%
DSIJ Intelligence / 11 Jan 2013
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for the month of Nov 2012 came in at negative 0.1%, which did not come as much of a surprise to the street. The cumulative growth for the Apr-Nov 2012-13 period stands at 1.0% as against 3.8% registered in the similar period last year.
The figure for the month of Oct 2012 has come in at 8.2%, which was on the higher end, but this was on account of a lower base. The IIP data for Nov 2012 was expected to come in at the lower end, after weak sentiments and lesser working days due to the festive season. The following table lists the IIP numbers of the last 13 months:
| IIP (%) (YoY Growth) | |
|---|---|
| Month | IIP (%) |
| Oct. 2011 | -4.92 |
| Nov. 2011 | 6.08 |
| Dec. 2011 | 2.68 |
| Jan. 2012 | 0.97 |
| Feb. 2012 | 4.23 |
| Mar. 2012 | -2.85 |
| Apr. 2012 | -1.26 |
| May. 2012 | 2.53 |
| Jun. 2012 | -1.98 |
| Jul. 2012 | -0.18 |
| Aug. 2012 | 2.29 |
| Sep. 2012 | -0.37 |
| Oct. 2012 | 8.2 |
| Nov. 2012 | -0.1 |
The lower Nov 12 data had no impact on
the markets. This might be because it will finally give the RBI an impetus to change its stance from inflationary control to growth. The central bank can now be expected to slash the repo rate to spur growth in the economy in its next monetary policy review meet scheduled on Jan 29, 2013.
In Nov 2012, the major segments, viz.
Manufacturing (75.52% of the overall IIP Index), Mining (14.15%) and Electricity (10.31%) posted subdued growth, which stood at 0.3%, -5.5% and 2.4% respectively on a YoY basis. Further, 13 out of a total of 22 industry groups in the Manufacturing Industry posted negative growth.
Next in line are the WPI and CPI numbers for the month of Dec 2012, which are expected to be released on Monday, Jan 14, 2013. If inflation continues to show some signs of moderation (as we have seen in the past couple of months), there is a very high possibility that the RBI would go ahead and slash its key rates. Watch this space for more.
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