Indian Benchmark Indices Likely to Open on Flat to Positive Note Amid Asian Gains, US-Iran Tensions

Pre-Market Update at 7:57 AM: The Indian stock market is expected to open on a flat-to-positive note on Monday, January 12, tracking gains across major Asian markets and amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties related to the US-Iran conflict. Early cues from the derivatives market reflected subdued sentiment, with exchanges monitoring global political and economic developments.

Early trends in Gift Nifty pointed to a neutral start for domestic equities, as Gift Nifty traded at 25,809.50, around 7.50 points or 0.1 per cent lower from the previous close.

On Friday, both benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, ended lower for the fifth straight session due to renewed fears over potential US tariff actions, caution ahead of Q3 earnings, and persistent foreign portfolio outflows. The Sensex fell 605 points or 0.72 per cent to settle at 83,576.24, while the Nifty 50 declined 194 points or 0.75 per cent to 25,683.30. Broader indices also weakened, with the BSE Midcap index down 0.90 per cent and the Smallcap index slipping 1.74 per cent.

Asian equities opened higher on Monday, buoyed by Friday’s gains on Wall Street after US payrolls came in weaker than expected for December, even as unemployment fell, indicating labour market resilience. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.71 per cent, South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.83 per cent, and the Kosdaq advanced 0.4 per cent. Japanese markets remained shut owing to a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was headed for a positive start, with futures at 26,408 compared to the previous close of 26,231.79.

Gift Nifty signaled a flat start to the trading session, hovering at 25,809.50, down 7.50 points or 0.1 per cent from its previous close.

US equities closed at record highs on Friday, supported by tech strength and softer-than-expected labour data. The S&P 500 gained 0.65 per cent to close at a record 6,966.28, after hitting a fresh Intraday all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.81 per cent to 23,671.35, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 237.96 points or 0.48 per cent to close at an all-time high of 49,504.07.

Geopolitical tensions escalated as US President Donald Trump considered retaliatory measures against Iran over its crackdown on nationwide protests, which human rights groups claim have caused more than 500 deaths. Trump warned that Washington may respond directly if demonstrators are killed by Iranian security forces. Tehran reacted by cautioning that US and Israeli military bases across the region could become “legitimate targets” if any military action is taken.

Oil prices remained steady in early trade on Monday as investors weighed risks of supply disruptions from OPEC member Iran amid intensifying protests, while progress toward resuming Venezuelan oil exports capped further price gains. Brent crude futures slipped USD 0.05 to USD 63.29 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate declined USD 0.06 to USD 59.06 per barrel.

Gold surged to a fresh all-time high after the US Justice Department signaled a possible criminal indictment against the US Federal Reserve, intensifying political friction in Washington. Rising protests in Iran further boosted safe-haven flows. Gold traded at USD 4,585.39 an ounce, up 1.7 per cent. Silver rallied 4.6 per cent following a nearly 10 per cent rise last week, while palladium and platinum also strengthened.

The US dollar retreated from a one-month high in early Monday trade after US prosecutors launched a criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, exacerbating tensions with the Trump administration. The dollar index eased 0.3 per cent to 98.899, snapping a five-session winning streak.

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Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.