India’s 2026 Monsoon Ends 12.6% Deficient, Weakest Since 2015

India’s 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a 12.6 per cent rainfall deficit, marking the weakest season in more than a decade. The country received 759.4 mm of rainfall during June-September against the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The shortfall, largely associated with strengthening El Niño conditions, has raised concerns around crop yields, reservoir levels, rural incomes and food prices, even though kharif sowing recovered significantly after a weak start.

The June-September rainfall was equivalent to about 87.4 per cent of the LPA, placing the season in the “deficient” category. It was the worst monsoon since 2015, the fourth-lowest since 2001 and the 13th-lowest since 1901.

Rainfall performance was highly uneven through the season. June delivered the biggest shock, with rainfall around 36 per cent below normal. Conditions improved sharply in July, when rainfall was around 1 per cent above normal, before weakening again in August and September, which recorded deficits of around 14-16 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively.

Despite El Niño conditions, the season recorded 77 low-pressure-system days, compared with a normal of around 57 days. The higher number of such weather systems helped limit the overall rainfall shortfall.

The regional distribution of rainfall remained sharply divided. Central India performed relatively better, with rainfall broadly within the normal range. Northwest India ended the season around 5.8 per cent below normal, while east and northeast India recorded a deficit of about 25.6 per cent. South peninsular India was also severely affected, with rainfall around 24.4 per cent below normal.

Across India’s 36 meteorological subdivisions, about 53 per cent recorded normal rainfall, while roughly 42 per cent experienced deficient rainfall. Some regions faced particularly severe conditions. Karnataka ended the southwest monsoon with a rainfall deficit of about 35 per cent, its largest shortfall in several decades.

The focus is now shifting towards crop productivity and water availability. Kharif sowing recovered substantially after falling sharply behind normal levels during June. By early September, overall planting had reached about 98 per cent of the normal area and around 96 per cent of the previous year’s acreage.

With acreage largely recovering, the bigger risk has shifted towards crop productivity. Cotton, maize, soybean, groundnut, tur and bajra remain more exposed because inadequate rainfall during critical crop-development stages can affect yields. Rice production is comparatively less vulnerable in areas with stronger irrigation coverage.

Water availability is another concern. As of late September, India’s 178 major reservoirs were holding water equivalent to about 70 per cent of their total capacity, the lowest level for this time of year in a decade. This compared with around 79 per cent a year earlier and a 10-year average of 76.6 per cent. Southern reservoirs were particularly weak, with storage at only around 50 per cent of capacity.

A deficient monsoon can affect the economy through lower agricultural output, weaker rural incomes and higher food prices. September rainfall is also important for maintaining soil moisture ahead of rabi planting of wheat, mustard and chickpeas.

The impact will therefore extend beyond the completed kharif season. Reservoir storage, October rainfall and winter crop sowing will determine how much of the monsoon weakness carries into FY27 agricultural production.

With El Niño conditions expected to remain influential in the coming months and October rainfall also projected to remain relatively weak, weather risks have not disappeared with the formal end of the southwest monsoon.

For the economy, the key indicators to track now are food inflation, reservoir levels, kharif yields, rabi sowing and rural consumption. A recovery in winter rainfall and irrigation availability could cushion some of the impact, while prolonged dry conditions would increase pressure on agricultural output and food supplies.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.