Lower Circuit Alert: MCX Share Price Tumble 17% From Record High as Bullion Prices See Violent Sell-Off

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) share price witnessed its sharpest single-day decline in nearly five years, plunging as much as 17 per cent from the record high of Rs 2,706 during Sunday’s special trading session held for the Union Budget 2026.

The stock later recovered part of its losses but was still trading 13.05 per cent lower at Rs 2,198, after hitting an intra-day low of Rs 2,148.80. With this fall, MCX slipped below its 20-day moving average (20-DMA) and touched a one-month low, signalling a near-term technical breakdown.

The sharp correction in MCX shares was triggered by an extraordinary crash in bullion prices, particularly silver, which contributes significantly to the exchange’s trading volumes. Over the last two sessions, MCX silver prices plunged as much as 25 per cent, extending the global sell-off in precious metals. Silver was last trading near Rs 2.74 lakh per kg, down over 6 per cent, after an earlier decline of nearly 10 per cent in early trade.

Gold prices also came under intense pressure. MCX gold futures dropped up to 9 per cent, with April contracts sliding to Rs 1,49,075 per 10 grams, while spot gold corrected sharply from recent highs. Such steep corrections in bullion prices directly impact volume visibility and earnings expectations for MCX, leading to aggressive profit booking in the stock.

The sell-off was not limited to MCX. Metal and mining stocks witnessed broad-based weakness amid the commodity correction. Hindustan Copper plunged over 14 per cent, Hindustan Zinc declined 11 per cent, NALCO fell nearly 10 per cent, and Vedanta slipped over 5 per cent, reflecting rising nervousness across the commodity space.

Globally, commodity markets turned volatile following U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. The development strengthened the U.S. dollar, prompting investors to move away from traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. While Warsh has recently aligned with calls for lower interest rates, his historically hawkish stance on inflation has added uncertainty, leading traders to unwind speculative metal positions.

Overseas, spot silver on COMEX fell over 14 per cent to USD 99.77 an ounce, while gold slipped below USD 5,000 an ounce, even as it remained on track for its strongest monthly gain since 1999.

According to MCX’s Q3 investor presentation, bullion remains the backbone of the exchange’s business model. Gold and silver together contribute nearly 78 per cent of total futures turnover, and MCX commands over 99 per cent market share across bullion, base metals and energy contracts. Any sharp movement in bullion prices therefore has an outsized impact on volumes and sentiment.

Despite the sharp stock correction, MCX’s operational performance remains strong. Average daily turnover in 9M FY26 rose sharply compared to FY25, driven by bullion and energy contracts. Futures average daily turnover doubled year-on-year, options premium increased 1.6 times, and options notional value surged 2.3 times, supported by bullion and energy activity.

Financial performance also remained robust in Q3, with income from operations rising 78 per cent year-on-year, while net profit jumped 103 per cent year-on-year, underscoring the exchange’s strong operating leverage.

The volatility was further amplified as the sharp move unfolded during a special live trading session on Sunday, held to accommodate the Union Budget presentation. MCX had announced extended trading hours from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm, coinciding with heightened global volatility in commodity markets.

While the break below key technical levels and heavy dependence on bullion volumes may keep MCX under pressure in the near term, analysts believe the exchange’s near-monopoly position and strong fundamentals remain intact. Stabilisation in precious metal prices or a revival in volumes could aid recovery, though volatility is expected to stay elevated amid evolving U.S. monetary policy expectations.

For now, the steep fall in MCX shares appears to reflect macro-driven panic rather than a deterioration in core fundamentals, a distinction long-term investors will continue to monitor closely.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.