Nifty 50 Likely to Open Lower as GIFTY Nifty Signals Weak Start; Reliance in Focus

Pre-Market Update at 8:04 AM: The Indian benchmark indices, the BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Wednesday, tracking mixed global market cues as investors remain cautious amid developments in the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict.

Asian markets were trading higher, while U.S. stock market indices ended mostly lower overnight as concerns grew over the widening conflict in the Middle East. As of 7:25 am, GIFTY Nifty was trading around the 24,305 level, a discount of nearly 60 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a negative start for the Indian stock market.

Asian markets traded higher on Wednesday as investors assessed developments in the ongoing U.S.–Iran war. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.36 per cent, while the Topix rose 1.22 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi rallied 2.52 per cent and the Kosdaq advanced 1.39 per cent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was marginally higher.

Israel is not seeking an endless war with Iran and will coordinate with the United States on when to end the fighting, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said. The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has engulfed the Middle East, with Iranian strikes hitting neighbouring states including the United Arab Emirates. Israel is also fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon while striking targets in Iran.

Reliance Industries share price will remain in focus after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the first new U.S. oil refinery in nearly 50 years. The refinery will be built in Brownsville, Texas, with Reliance’s investment forming part of a USD 300 billion project. The refinery is expected to boost U.S. energy production, strengthen national security and create thousands of jobs, even as rising tensions in West Asia and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz continue to impact global oil markets.

The Union Cabinet has approved the extension of the Jal Jeevan Mission until December 2028 with a revised outlay of Rs 8.69 lakh crore. The scheme aims to transition the rural water programme into a service-delivery model under JJM 2.0. The Centre’s share has been increased to Rs 3.59 lakh crore, while initiatives such as “Sujalam Bharat” will digitally map water supply networks. Launched in 2019, the mission has expanded tap water access to around 81 per cent of rural households, with the government targeting coverage for all 19.36 crore homes by 2028.

In global currency markets, the U.S. dollar held steady as traders moved to the sidelines. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, stood at 98.876, slightly lower from the three-month high reached on Monday.

Japan’s wholesale inflation slowed for the third consecutive month in February. The Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) rose 2.0 per cent year-on-year, easing from 2.3 per cent in January and slightly below the market forecast of 2.1 per cent.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed its largest-ever release of oil reserves to curb rising crude prices triggered by the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal. The proposed release is expected to exceed the 182 million barrels released in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In the Nifty 50 options segment, derivatives data shows notable activity across key strike prices. On the Put side, the 24,200 strike recorded the highest open interest additions, followed by the 24,000 strike. On the Call side, the 24,300 strike saw the highest open interest addition.

The 24,500 strike held the largest Call option open interest concentration on Tuesday, indicating it could act as a strong resistance level for Wednesday’s trading session. On the downside, the 24,000 strike Put option has the highest open interest, suggesting it may act as a strong psychological support level for the Nifty 50.

In the derivatives segment, Sammaan Capital and SAIL will remain under the F&O ban list for March 11.

Institutional activity showed mixed trends on Tuesday. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers of equities worth Rs 4,672.64 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought shares worth Rs 6,333.26 crore. FIIs have remained net sellers for the last eight consecutive trading sessions.

On Tuesday, the Indian stock market ended with healthy gains as global risk sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted that the U.S.–Iran war in West Asia could be nearing an end. The Sensex jumped 639.82 points, or 0.82 per cent, to close at 78,205.98, while the Nifty 50 gained 233.55 points, or 0.97 per cent, to settle at 24,261.60.

Wall Street ended mostly lower on Tuesday as investors assessed fading hopes of an early end to the U.S.–Iran conflict and ongoing concerns about economic stagflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 34.29 points, or 0.07 per cent, to close at 47,706.51. The S&P 500 fell 14.51 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 6,781.48, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 1.16 points, or 0.01 per cent, to 22,697.10.

Among major stocks, Nvidia rose 1.16 per cent, Advanced Micro Devices gained 0.27 per cent and Intel advanced 2.63 per cent. Apple added 0.37 per cent, SanDisk surged 5.12 per cent and Tesla rose 0.14 per cent. On the downside, Centene plunged 15.97 per cent, while in extended trading Oracle jumped 8.70 per cent.

In the commodities market, gold rose to around USD 5,210 per ounce on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As of 7:12 am, spot gold prices were up 0.5 per cent at USD 5,214 per ounce, while silver rose 0.32 per cent to USD 88.6 per ounce.

Crude oil prices remained below USD 90 per barrel after reports that the IEA proposed the largest oil reserve release in its history. Brent crude futures fell to USD 85.74 per barrel at 7:14 am, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at USD 81.52.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.