Nifty 50, Sensex Likely to Open Lower as Crude Oil Surges Over USD 95 per barrel

Pre-Market Update at 7:53 AM: The Indian stock market benchmark indices, the BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50, are expected to open lower on Thursday amid weak global cues and rising geopolitical tensions that have pushed crude oil prices sharply higher. Concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East have kept global investors cautious, adding pressure on equity markets.

Crude oil prices surged on Thursday after reports that two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, intensifying fears of supply disruptions. The attacks come as the conflict involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran entered its thirteenth consecutive day, keeping global markets on edge over possible interruptions to Middle East oil flows.

Global markets remained cautious as escalating tensions in the U.S.–Iran war pushed crude oil prices sharply higher, raising fresh concerns about global inflation and economic growth. Asian markets traded lower on Thursday, while U.S. markets ended mixed overnight after inflation data came broadly in line with expectations.

As of 7:25 am, GIFTY Nifty was trading around the 24,782 level, at a discount of nearly 130 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a negative start for the Indian stock market indices.

Asian equities traded lower following weakness on Wall Street and rising oil prices. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 1.6 per cent, while the TOPIX slipped 1.34 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.75 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined by 0.71 per cent.

The conflict between the United States and Iran continues to escalate. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that military operations would continue until the objectives are achieved. Iran has warned that global oil prices could surge to USD 200 per barrel amid attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route.

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3 per cent in February after increasing 0.2 per cent in January. On a yearly basis, inflation remained steady at 2.4 per cent, broadly matching market expectations.

The International Energy Agency announced plans to release 400 million barrels of oil from its emergency reserves to stabilise supply disruptions caused by the conflict.

U.S. Treasury yields climbed as higher crude prices revived inflation concerns and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The two-year yield rose to 3.632 per cent, while the benchmark 10-year yield increased to 4.206 per cent.

The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened slightly to 99.36 as investors moved toward safer assets amid geopolitical tensions.

From the derivatives perspective, the Put–Call Ratio (PCR) stands near 0.62, reflecting a cautious market bias. Options data highlights significant call open interest at the 24,300 strike with around 82,100 contracts, marking it as a strong resistance level. Meanwhile, the 23,500 strike holds nearly 55,630 put open interest, reinforcing it as a key support base.

For Thursday’s session, Sammaan Capital and SAIL will remain under the futures and options (F&O) ban list.

On March 11, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers, selling equities worth Rs 6,267.31 crore. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), on the other hand, bought shares worth Rs 4,965.53 crore during the same session. FIIs have now remained net sellers for the last nine consecutive trading sessions.

On Wednesday, Indian equities witnessed sharp selling pressure due to profit booking and caution surrounding the Middle East conflict. The BSE Sensex fell 1,342.27 points, or 1.72 per cent, to close at 76,863.71. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 declined 394.75 points, or 1.63 per cent, to settle at 23,866.85.

U.S. markets ended mixed as investors balanced inflation data with geopolitical risks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 289.24 points to 47,417.27, while the S&P 500 declined slightly to 6,775.80. The Nasdaq Composite edged higher to 22,716.14.

Among major stocks, Nvidia, AMD and Intel posted gains, while Microsoft slipped slightly. Shares of Tesla rallied, and Oracle surged more than 9 per cent following strong growth expectations.

Gold fell below USD 5,150 per ounce on Thursday, sliding for the second consecutive session as surging oil prices heightened inflationary risks and reduced the likelihood of central Bank interest rate cuts. As of 7:08 am, spot prices dropped 0.26 per cent to USD 5,162 per ounce, while silver prices declined 0.43 per cent to USD 85.3 per ounce.

Brent crude futures climbed above USD 95 per barrel on Thursday, rising for the second consecutive session as persistent concerns over the Iran war overshadowed the coordinated release of oil reserves by major economies. Brent futures jumped to USD 95.09 per barrel at 7:11 am, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded higher at USD 90.94.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.