Pre-Market Update: Nifty 50 May Open Lower on July 30 as U.S.-Iran Tensions, Fed Pause and 100+ Q1 Earnings Keep Markets on Edge

The Indian stock market is likely to witness a subdued start on Thursday, July 30, as investors react to the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and rising geopolitical tensions following the escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Mixed cues from Asian markets and a sharp overnight decline on Wall Street are also expected to weigh on sentiment.

At 7:32 AM, GIFT Nifty was trading around 24,255, down 44 points from the previous Nifty futures close, indicating a weak opening for domestic equities.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50 per cent-3.75 per cent, marking the fifth consecutive policy meeting without a rate change. The decision followed the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with the central Bank also retaining its projections for inflation, unemployment and economic growth, signalling that policymakers continue to evaluate incoming data before considering any policy shift.

Global risk sentiment remained under pressure after the U.S. launched fresh military strikes on Iran, extending the conflict into its fifth month. According to the U.S. Central Command, the strikes were carried out in response to alleged Iranian attempts to target U.S. forces in the region. The situation further intensified after a drone attack on a U.S.-owned gas storage tanker at Egypt's Damietta port, while military operations involving U.S., Saudi and Iran-backed forces continued across the Middle East.

Crude oil prices eased on Thursday after recording strong gains in the previous session. Brent crude slipped USD 1.29, or 1.42 per cent, to USD 89.45 per barrel, while WTI crude declined USD 0.56, or 0.66 per cent, to USD 83.90 per barrel. The pullback followed Wednesday's rally when Brent surged 7.91 per cent and WTI climbed 6.56 per cent, reversing the sharp losses seen earlier this week.

The June quarter earnings season will remain the key domestic trigger, with more than 100 companies scheduled to announce their Q1 FY27 results during the day. Major companies reporting earnings include Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC), Vedanta, Swiggy, Torrent Pharmaceuticals and Hyundai Motor India.

Gold prices edged higher after the Fed's policy decision. Spot gold rose 0.4 per cent to USD 4,080.38 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for August delivery gained 1.1 per cent to USD 4,078 per ounce. Despite the day's rise, the precious metal has fallen nearly 25 per cent since the U.S.-Iran conflict began five months ago, as elevated energy prices have strengthened expectations that interest rates could remain higher for longer.

Derivatives data for the August series indicates a Put-Call Ratio (PCR) of 1.17. Significant put open interest addition was seen at the 24,200 strike, with major put concentration at 24,200 and 24,000, indicating strong support around these levels. On the call side, fresh open interest addition was visible at the 24,600 strike, while the highest call open interest remained concentrated at the 25,000 strike, suggesting resistance near that zone.

Technically, Nifty 50 continues to maintain a positive undertone after moving above its short- and medium-term moving averages, reclaiming the 100-day EMA and breaking above a falling trendline. Momentum indicators also remain supportive. While some consolidation cannot be ruled out after the recent rally, the broader trend is expected to stay positive as long as the index holds above the 24,100-24,000 support zone. Immediate resistance is seen in the 24,400-24,500 range.

Stock-specific activity is expected to remain strong following a series of earnings announcements and corporate developments. Eicher Motors reported a 21.3 per cent rise in Q1 consolidated profit to Rs 1,462.5 crore, while revenue increased 31.5 per cent to Rs 6,632.4 crore. Dabur India posted a 15.3 per cent increase in profit to Rs 586.2 crore, with revenue rising 10.6 per cent to Rs 3,764.4 crore, supported by 9.5 per cent growth in its India FMCG business.

MOIL reported a 70.1 per cent jump in quarterly profit to Rs 87.6 crore, while MTAR Technologies posted nearly five-fold growth in profit to Rs 50.2 crore on a 130.4 per cent increase in revenue. Bajaj Housing Finance reported a 22.6 per cent increase in profit to Rs 715.3 crore, while Waaree Energies delivered a 14.1 per cent rise in profit and a 79.2 per cent jump in revenue.

Vedanta's businesses reported mixed performance. Its Oil & Gas segment posted a profit of Rs 945 crore against a loss last year, while the Iron & Steel business returned to profitability with Rs 121 crore. However, the Power business reported a loss of Rs 423 crore despite healthy revenue growth.

Hexaware Technologies reported a 13 per cent decline in profit despite a 17.9 per cent increase in revenue, while ACME Solar Holdings recorded an 80 per cent surge in profit. Piramal Pharma narrowed its quarterly loss, whereas TBO Tek, Redington, TeamLease Services and Quess Corp reported strong earnings growth. In contrast, Prestige Estates Projects and Chalet Hotels reported lower profits.

Among other corporate developments, Punjab National Bank's board approved a USD 1.5 billion Medium-Term Note Programme through its IFSC Banking Unit at GIFT City to raise foreign currency funds. NBCC (India) signed a USD 75 million agreement with the Government of Seychelles for the development of 1,008 affordable housing units under the Ile Aurore Housing Project. Hirect secured its first order from the U.S. for traction motor assemblies, while Vikran Engineering commissioned the strategically important 132 kV Miao-Namsai transmission line in Arunachal Pradesh.

There are no stocks under the F&O ban for Thursday's trading session.

Institutional investors remained supportive of the market on July 29. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 2,981.87 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased shares worth Rs 998.02 crore.

Domestic equities ended Wednesday on a strong note, with the Nifty 50 rising 264.85 points, or 1.10 per cent, to close at 24,250.20, marking its biggest single-day gain in nearly seven weeks. The Sensex advanced 888.68 points, or 1.16 per cent, to settle at 77,654.60. Bank Nifty gained 0.79 per cent, while India VIX declined 4.42 per cent to around the 12 level, reflecting easing market volatility.

Overnight, Wall Street closed sharply lower after the Fed policy announcement, with investors remaining cautious ahead of quarterly earnings from major technology companies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.19 per cent to 51,594.14, the Nasdaq declined 1.74 per cent to 24,442.94, and the S&P 500 slipped 1.52 per cent to 7,316.15.

Overall, investors are expected to closely track global developments, the evolving geopolitical situation, crude oil prices, institutional flows and a heavy earnings calendar, which are likely to drive market direction during Thursday's trading session.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.