Saatvik Green Energy order book and cell expansion support FY28 margin recovery

Investment View and Target Price

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited’s September 18, 2026 update on Saatvik Green Energy reiterates a BUY rating and a target price of Rs 508 per share, implying 23 per cent upside from the CMP of Rs 412.

The positive view is based on strong Indian solar capacity additions, a sharply higher order book and expected margin improvement as Saatvik Green Energy begins domestic solar-cell manufacturing.

Indian Solar Market and Manufacturing Opportunity

India’s installed solar capacity reached 168 GW by August 2026, following around 18 GW of additions during April to August 2026. This puts the country on track to exceed the Central Electricity Authority’s FY27-end target of 176 GW.

Motilal Oswal also highlights a substantial domestic manufacturing gap. ALMM-II-listed domestic cell capacity stood at about 35 GW at August 2026-end, compared with around 215 GW of ALMM-I-listed module capacity. This supports the strategic value of domestic cell production and DCR module supply.

Order Book and Revenue Visibility

Saatvik Green Energy’s order book rose from around Rs 82,000 million on August 18, 2026 to around Rs 97,000 million after approximately Rs 15,300 million of fresh orders in the subsequent month. About 30 per cent of the earlier order book was DCR and 70 per cent was non-DCR.

Deliveries for the full order book are scheduled across FY27 and FY28. According to Motilal Oswal, the order book provides visibility for nearly 100 per cent of FY27E revenue from Q2 FY27E to Q4 FY27E and around 60 per cent of FY28E revenue.

A 600 MWp DCR module order from SECI, worth Rs 10,400 million, carries an implied realisation of around Rs 17.36 per watt peak and is scheduled for delivery in December 2027. The broker says the price is below prevailing utility-scale module prices of US$0.20 to US$0.21 per watt peak, but supports base utilisation and a steady utility pipeline.

Cell Manufacturing Ramp-up and Margin Outlook

The key operating catalyst is the planned commissioning of Phase I, comprising 2.4 GW of cell capacity. ALMM-II inspection was scheduled for September 2026, with cell production expected to start in Q3 FY27 and ramp through Q4 FY27.

Phase II adds 3.6 GW by FY28-end, taking total cell capacity to around 6 GW. Motilal Oswal expects greater backward integration and a higher DCR contribution to lift EBITDA margin to around 15 per cent in FY28E from around 8 per cent in FY27E.

Financial Performance and Estimates

Motilal Oswal forecasts revenue and EBITDA CAGR of 36 per cent and 50 per cent, respectively, over FY26 to FY28E. Forecast net debt to EBITDA rises to 4.9 times in FY27E before reducing to 2.7 times in FY28E.

Valuation and Key Dependencies

Motilal Oswal values Saatvik Green Energy’s domestic module business at 8 times FY28E EBITDA of Rs 12,228 million, deriving an enterprise value of Rs 97,827 million. After deducting estimated net debt of Rs 33,291 million, it arrives at a market capitalisation of Rs 64,536 million and a target price of Rs 508 per share.

The investment case depends on the timely ramp-up of cell capacity, conversion and execution of the order book, and the expected shift towards higher-margin DCR volumes.