Indian Markets Set for Gap-Down Start on March 4; Sensex, Nifty Under Pressure Amid U.S.-Israel-Iran Conflict

Pre-Market Update at 7:51 AM: Indian benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open sharply lower on Wednesday, March 4, 2026, tracking heavy global sell-offs triggered by escalating U.S.-Israel air strikes on Iran that have intensified geopolitical tensions.

Gift Nifty was trading near the 24,442 mark, about 546 points below Tuesday’s Nifty futures close, indicating a significant gap-down start for domestic markets.

Asian markets declined across the board, while Wall Street ended with steep losses overnight. The S&P 500 slipped below its 100-day moving average for the first time since November 20, reflecting rising investor anxiety. Amid growing volatility and global uncertainty, investors are advised to maintain a cautious approach, keep position sizes light and focus on disciplined risk management.

The conflict expanded further across the region with continued missile exchanges and military strikes. Reports indicate U.S. forces targeted multiple strategic installations in Iran, including naval assets and command centres, raising concerns of a prolonged regional war and potential disruption in global energy supplies.

Japanese government bond yields declined as investors pared expectations of an early rate hike by the Bank of Japan. U.S. Treasury yields rose for a second consecutive session but retreated from Intraday highs. The U.S. dollar index hovered near a three-month high, remaining firm against major currencies, while the euro and pound edged lower.

India’s industrial production growth slowed to 4.8 per cent in January, marking a three-month low. Factory output had expanded 5.2 per cent in January last year.

Sammaan Capital will remain on the F&O ban list for March 4.

On March 2, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers, offloading equities worth Rs 3,295.64 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought shares worth Rs 8,593.87 crore. FIIs have remained net sellers for three consecutive trading sessions.

The Indian stock market was closed on Tuesday, March 3, for Holi 2026. On Monday, domestic indices had already witnessed a sharp sell-off amid rising crude oil prices and escalating Middle East tensions. The Sensex fell 1,048.34 points, or 1.29 per cent, to close at 80,238.85, while the Nifty 50 dropped 312.95 points, or 1.24 per cent, to settle at 24,865.70.

U.S. markets ended sharply lower on fears that prolonged geopolitical tensions could reignite inflationary pressures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 403.51 points, or 0.83 per cent, to 48,501.27. The S&P 500 fell 64.99 points, or 0.94 per cent, to 6,816.63, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 232.17 points, or 1.02 per cent, to 22,516.69. Among major stocks, Nvidia, AMD, Apple, Tesla and Blackstone closed lower, while Microsoft registered gains.

Gold prices rebounded more than 1 per cent after hitting a one-week low in the previous session, supported by safe-haven demand. Oil prices climbed on fears of supply disruptions, with Brent crude rising to USD 81.77 per barrel and WTI crude advancing to USD 75.01 per barrel.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.