Indian Markets Set for Muted Start; IIP Data, Crude Oil and Defence-Maritime Stocks in Focus

Indian equity benchmarks are likely to open Monday’s session on a flat note after the long weekend, with mixed global cues and a modest rebound in crude oil prices keeping sentiment guarded. As of 7:06 AM, GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,091.5, down 4 points or 0.02 per cent, signaling a muted start for the Nifty and Sensex.

Investors will track developments around US-Iran tensions, crude oil prices, institutional flows, India’s May IIP data and stock-specific action through the day.

US-Iran Tensions Keep Crude in Focus

Geopolitical risk returned to the spotlight after fresh retaliatory attacks between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. The US reportedly carried out strikes on Iranian military infrastructure after an attack on a commercial vessel, while Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on US-linked targets in the Gulf region.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important energy transit routes, making any escalation in the region a key risk for crude oil and LNG markets. However, the situation has not yet moved into a full-blown conflict. Both sides have reportedly agreed to pause further strikes and resume talks in Doha this week.

For now, markets are likely to treat the development as a fragile pause rather than a complete resolution. Any fresh statement from either side could influence crude oil prices and risk appetite through the week.

Crude Rebounds from Four-Month Low

Crude oil prices moved back above the USD 70 per barrel mark on Monday, recovering modestly from four-month lows as traders priced in renewed geopolitical risk. The rebound followed the latest flare-up around the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping activity remains under close watch.

Although movement through the route has improved since the interim peace understanding, shIPOwners remain cautious, with some vessels still waiting in the Persian Gulf. This means crude may continue to carry a geopolitical risk premium until there is greater clarity from the Doha talks.

For Indian markets, crude remains an important monitorable as higher oil prices can weigh on the rupee, inflation expectations and margins of oil-sensitive sectors such as paints, aviation, Logistics and chemicals.

India-Seychelles Deals Put Defence and Maritime Stocks on Radar

Defence, shipbuilding, digital payments, healthcare and infrastructure-related stocks may see selective attention after India and Seychelles announced 19 agreements to strengthen their strategic partnership.

The agreements cover maritime security, digital payments, healthcare, space, agriculture and development assistance. From a market perspective, the focus will be on India’s growing role in the Indian Ocean region, along with opportunities linked to defence exports, coastal security, UPI connectivity, affordable medicines and infrastructure execution.

Companies connected to defence manufacturing, shipbuilding, fintech platforms, pharma distribution and project implementation could remain in focus.

May IIP Data to Be Released Today

India’s Index of Industrial Production data for May 2026 will be released today and will be closely watched for signs of industrial momentum. The previous reading showed 4.9% growth in April, supported by manufacturing activity.

However, the sharp slowdown in May core sector output to 0.5% may keep expectations measured. A steady IIP print could support sentiment in manufacturing, capital goods and industrial stocks, while a weaker number may raise concerns over near-term demand conditions.

Institutional Flows Support Market Sentiment

Institutional activity remained supportive on Thursday, June 25. FIIs turned net buyers, purchasing Rs 18,988.03 crore and selling Rs 18,604.27 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 383.76 crore.

DIIs continued to provide strong support, with purchases of Rs 24,844.03 crore against sales of Rs 19,096.28 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 5,747.75 crore. Sustained domestic buying remains a key cushion for the market, especially at a time when global cues are mixed.

No Stock Under F&O Ban

For Monday’s session, no stock is under the F&O ban list, giving traders a clean slate in the derivatives segment.

How Indian Markets Fared on Thursday

Indian equities ended Thursday’s session on a flat-to-positive note, giving up most of their early gains due to profit booking ahead of the long weekend and monthly expiry. The Sensex gained 109 points to close at 77,100.47, while the Nifty added 34 points to settle at 24,056.

The broader tone remained cautious as gains in select Large-Cap stocks were offset by mixed market breadth. Softer crude oil prices and a firmer rupee offered some support, but the index failed to build strong momentum at higher levels. Sectorally, auto stocks stood out, while selective buying was visible in other pockets of the market.

US Markets End Lower

US markets closed lower on Friday as weakness in technology and Semiconductor stocks weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 slipped 0.05 per cent, the Nasdaq 100 declined 1.09 per cent, while the Dow Jones lost around 45 points.

Chipmakers led the decline, with Micron Technology, NVIDIA and Broadcom ending lower as investors trimmed positions after the previous session’s rally. Renewed US-Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz also kept geopolitical risk on investors’ radar. Separately, markets tracked the upcoming Dow Jones reshuffle, with Alphabet set to replace Verizon Communications before the start of trading on Monday.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.