Pre-Market Update: Nifty 50, Sensex Set for 250-Point Gap-Down Opening; Asian Markets Slide Over 3%

Pre-Market Update at 7:53 AM: The Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to extend losses and open lower on Monday, tracking weak global cues as the U.S.–Iran conflict enters its fifth week. Rising geopolitical tensions have pushed crude oil prices higher, fuelling inflation concerns and weakening investor sentiment.

As of 7:22 am, GIFT Nifty was trading around the 22,565 level, down nearly 250 points from the previous close of Nifty futures, indicating a gap-down start for domestic markets. Asian markets also traded sharply lower, while U.S. equities ended last week on a weak note. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq recorded their fifth consecutive weekly decline, marking the longest losing streak in nearly four years.

Investor focus this week will remain on key global and domestic triggers, including developments in the U.S.–Iran conflict, crude oil price movements, trends in FII flows, gold and silver prices, and major macroeconomic data releases.

Asian markets witnessed a sharp sell-off on Monday amid continued geopolitical uncertainty. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 4.71 per cent, while the Topix dropped 3.83 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi fell over 3 per cent, and the Kosdaq slipped 3.22 per cent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was also trading 1.66 per cent lower in early trade.

The U.S.–Iran conflict has now entered its second month with no clear signs of de-escalation. The involvement of Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen has heightened concerns over global trade disruptions, particularly due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated the possibility of targeting Iran’s key oil infrastructure, including the Kharg Island export terminal.

Crude oil prices have surged amid the ongoing conflict. Brent crude rose 1.22 per cent to USD 107.45 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.47 per cent to USD 99.41 per barrel, adding to inflationary pressures globally.

In the U.S., consumer sentiment weakened, with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 53.3 in March from 55.5 earlier, below the Reuters estimate of 54.0. The index had stood at 56.6 in February, reflecting declining confidence amid economic uncertainties.

On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has introduced new regulations capping banks’ open positions in the onshore currency market at USD 100 million at the end of each trading day. These rules will come into effect from April 10.

Japanese government bond yields surged to near three-decade highs, with the 10-year yield rising 2 basis points to 2.39 per cent, its highest level since February 1999. The 5-year yield edged up 0.5 basis points to 1.82 per cent. Minutes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting indicated that policymakers are considering further rate hikes, driven by rising oil prices and inflationary pressures linked to geopolitical tensions.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major peers, stood at 100.14 in early trade.

From a derivatives perspective, the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 0.88. On the put side, significant open interest is seen at the 22,500 strike, making it a key support level, followed by 22,000. On the call side, the 23,000 strike holds strong open interest, indicating resistance at higher levels. This suggests that any upside may face selling pressure, while 22,000 remains a crucial support zone.

Technically, last Monday’s low of 22,470 is expected to act as immediate support for the Nifty 50. A break below 22,450 could lead to further downside towards 22,250 and 22,000. On the upside, resistance is seen at 22,630 and 22,800.

Stocks likely to remain in focus include Ceigall India, Dredging Corporation of India, Coal India, Indian Overseas Bank, Tata Motors, RailTel Corporation, G R Infraprojects, Thermax, KNR Constructions, NTPC, Dilip Buildcon, and Enviro Infra Engineers, driven by key project wins, Order Book updates, and corporate developments.

In the derivatives segment, SAIL remains under the F&O ban.

Institutional activity continues to reflect cautious sentiment. On March 27, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers, offloading equities worth Rs 4,367.30 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought shares worth Rs 3,566.15 crore. FIIs have remained net sellers for the past 20 consecutive trading sessions.

On Friday, Indian markets ended sharply lower, extending their losing streak to five consecutive weeks. The Sensex plunged 1,690.23 points, or 2.25 per cent, to close at 73,583.22, while the Nifty 50 declined 486.85 points, or 2.09 per cent, to settle at 22,819.60.

Wall Street also ended lower on Friday, with all three major indices closing at their lowest levels in over seven months. The Dow Jones fell 793.47 points, or 1.73 per cent, to 45,166.64. The S&P 500 dropped 108.31 points, or 1.67 per cent, to 6,368.85, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 459.72 points, or 2.15 per cent, to 20,948.36. Major technology stocks such as Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla also recorded losses.

In the commodities market, gold and silver prices declined. Spot gold fell 1.3 per cent to USD 4,436.63 per ounce, while silver dropped 1.9 per cent to USD 68.43 per ounce, erasing recent gains.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.