Top 3 Stocks to Watch Out for in March 2026: Over 80% Success Rate and Average Returns of Up to 10%; Full Analysis

February 2026 proved to be an ideal example of the saying, “February may be short on days, but never short on volatility.” Right from the start, the month was rife with market-moving events. It kicked off with the Union Budget 2026, followed by an announcement of an interim deal between India and the US, the US Supreme Court striking down Trump’s global tariff, and Trump’s abrupt tariff announcements—first 10 percent, then quickly raised to 15 percent. On top of this, the AI-led disruption triggered a significant sell-off in Indian IT stocks. In short, there was no pause button; the headlines kept rolling, and the Nifty 50 index ended February with a loss of 0.56 percent, slipping below its 200-DMA.

As February fades into the rearview, the question on every investor's mind is whether March 2026 will provide some much-needed relief. But if early signs are anything to go by, it doesn’t seem like it. Explosions were heard in Tehran, Iran, as Israel announced pre-emptive strikes, dragging the Middle East into a renewed military conflict. Adding to the uncertainty, US producer inflation data came in higher than expected, suggesting that inflationary pressures remain persistent. This could push the US Federal Reserve into taking a more cautious stance, fading the hopes of interest rate cut. All these factors point to a challenging start to March, emphasising the idea that a stock-specific approach may be the best way forward.

So, which stocks should be on your radar for March 2026? For guidance, we can turn to the power of seasonality performance or seasonal pattern.

What is Seasonal Pattern or Seasonality Performance?

In technical analysis, one of the key assumptions is that history tends to repeat itself. When we apply this to the stock market, it means that if a stock has historically performed well during a certain month, it may show similar strength during that period in subsequent years. While past performance does not guarantee future results, it serves as a helpful roadmap for assessing the probabilities of positive returns.

List of Top Three Stocks to Watch Out for in March 2026 with Over 80 per cent Success Rate

Based on historical trends, here are the top three stocks from the Nifty 500 index with a success ratio of over 80 percent in March.

1. Pidilite Industries: Strong March Performance with an 88 per cent Success Ratio

Pidilite Industries, a pioneer in adhesives, waterproofing, and the pigment segment, has built a strong reputation in India with its flagship brand, Fevicol. Other notable brands under its umbrella include M-Seal, Fevikwik, and Dr. Fixit. Over the past 17 years, from 2009 to 2025, Pidilite has closed in the positive territory 15 times in March, giving it a success ratio of 88 percent. The stock has seen an average gain of 7.18 percent in March alone.

Despite facing challenges in Q3 FY26—particularly from exports, which were significantly affected by geopolitical tensions—Pidilite’s domestic business remained robust, with an underlying volume growth (UVG) of 11 percent. Exports, however, saw a decline of 13.5 percent, pulling down the overall UVG to 9 percent. Management remains optimistic, expressing confidence that the export challenges are "largely behind" and that new tariff rates will help stabilize the situation. With the company aggressively exploring new geographies like the European Union, Pidilite is well-positioned for growth. Given the strong domestic performance and the favorable seasonality, Pidilite is a stock to keep an eye on for March 2026.

2. Cummins India: Over 10 per cent Average Return in March with an 80 per cent Success Rate

Cummins India, a leading power solutions provider, is known for its strong presence in power generation, aftermarket services, and exports. The company operates five state-of-the-art manufacturing plants and has an impressive track record of positive returns in March, closing in the green 14 times out of the last 17 years. This gives the stock a success ratio of 82 percent, with an average gain of 10.33 percent.

In its Q3 FY26 earnings report, Cummins India reported a stable performance with Rs 3,006 crore in sales, despite a slight dip in domestic sales. Profit before Tax (PBT) increased by 7 percent. Looking ahead, management is optimistic, projecting double-digit revenue growth for FY26 and a similar outlook for the domestic market in FY27. The company is also positioning itself well in the growing data center segment, which now contributes approximately 25 percent of its Power Gen revenue. The Data Center segment continues to be a cornerstone of the company’s long-term strategy, Although the "lumpy" nature of data center execution led to a 16 percent YoY decline in Power Gen revenue in Q3FY26, the underlying pipeline is building out exceptionally well with both hyperscalers and co-located players. Given the stock's solid track record in March and its positive outlook, it should be on your radar for the month.

3. AIA Engineering: 14 Positive Closes in March Over the Last 17 Years

AIA Engineering manufactures high-chrome grinding media, used in cement, power utilities, and mining industries. Over the past 17 years, the stock has closed positively in March 14 times, resulting in a success ratio of 82 percent, with an average gain of 8.27 percent.

In Q3 FY26, AIA Engineering reported a strong operational performance with a top line of Rs 1,200 crore. Reported EBITDA came in at Rs 425 crore (close to a 40 percent margin), while operating EBITDA was indicated at 28 percent after excluding the impact of other income; profit after tax (after minority interest) was Rs 294 crore. The company’s focus remains on expanding its presence in large international markets like Latin America, Australia, and Africa. These regions present a significant growth opportunity due to their large market size, and AIA Engineering is actively working to increase its market share in these areas.

In parallel, the company plans to set up new manufacturing facilities in Ghana and China within the next 1.5 to 2 years, which is intended to support growth in these markets. The ongoing trials for new lining and grinding media solutions could further bolster its growth trajectory. With favorable seasonality trends, AIA Engineering remains a stock to watch for March 2026.

Conclusion: Stock-Specific Approach for March 2026

With the global economic environment fraught with geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures, March 2026 is likely to be another month of market volatility. However, by focusing on stocks that have historically performed well during this period, market participants can better shield themselves from the uncertainty.

Historically, Pidilite Industries, Cummins India, and AIA Engineering have consistently performed well in March. With favorable seasonality performance and a success ratio of over 80 percent, these stocks should remain on your watchlist for March.

By sticking to a stock-specific approach, investors can better position themselves to make informed decisions in an uncertain market environment.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and not investment or trading advice.